Let’s stop pretending the “Russia problem” is some brand-new crisis.
This headache has been brewing for centuries. Russia has been invaded by Napoleon, the Kaiser, and Hitler, and each time, it ended the same way—millions of dead Russians and an even bigger grudge against the West. In World War I, they lost over 3 million people. In World War II, that number skyrocketed to 26 million. You don’t shake off that kind of trauma just because McDonald’s opened in Moscow for a few decades.
And let’s talk about that trust issue. When the Soviet Union collapsed, the West promised Gorbachev that NATO wouldn’t move “one inch” eastward if he let Germany reunite. Spoiler alert: We lied. NATO didn’t just inch east—it sprinted. Add in the economic disaster of the 1990s, where oligarchs looted the country while average Russians starved, and you’ve got a recipe for resentment.
Now, does that justify invading Ukraine? No. But does pretending Russia’s paranoia came out of nowhere make any sense? Also no.
No answers, but not talking is undoubtedly not the answer. We reconciled with Japan. We reconciled with Germany. We reconciled with Italy. Yes, the Marshall Plan helped,
Look at the body count of all lives lost in the wars involving Japan, Germany, and Italy. All of the following wars involved Russia, China, and Europe.
Russia: A Problem Centuries in the Making—With 5,000 Nukes and a Chip on Its Shoulder
1. No NATO for Ukraine. Russia already sees NATO as the boogeyman. Adding Ukraine is like poking a bear that happens to own 5,000 nukes. Maybe let’s not.
2. Economic Carrots, Not Just Sticks. Sanctions are fun until they turn Russia into an even bigger rogue state. If we want them to behave, give them a reason to prefer trade over war—because right now, they’ve got nothing to lose.
3. China is Not Their Friend. Russia and China have been uneasy neighbors for centuries. Currently, Russia is the gas station, and China holds credit cards. The West should remind Moscow it’s one lousy deal from becoming Beijing’s vassal state.
4. Think Long-Term. Russia isn’t turning into a Western democracy anytime soon, if ever. However, a Russia that sees cooperation as being in its best interest is better than one that only sees war as an option.
The Holodomor
The Holodomor (1932–1933) was a man-made famine in Soviet Ukraine, orchestrated by Joseph Stalin’s regime as part of collectivization policies and repression against Ukrainian nationalism. Grain requisitions left millions without food, while borders were closed to prevent escape. Estimates of the death toll range from 3.5 to 7 million, with some scholars suggesting higher numbers. Classified as genocide by Ukraine and several other nations, the Holodomor remains one of history’s most devastating artificial famines.
The Bottom Line
Russia is cautious about trusting the West because history hasn’t been kind. Russia even made overtures for more significant ties to the West, although it was a bit much for them to ask to join NATO and the EU.
And Ukraine more than just distrusts Russia—it hates and resents it. See Holodomor.
But ignoring history ourselves is just setting up another cycle of conflict. If we keep pretending Russia will “get over it” while shoving NATO to their doorstep, we shouldn’t be surprised when they act like a cornered animal. And remember: cornered animals bite.
We complain that the Middle East is holding on to ancient hatreds, but as tricky as it is to admit, “are we doing the same when it comes to Russia?”
Change is never without conflict. But let us avoid the conflict that kills.
