For months, intelligence warnings have sounded the alarm that Iran isn’t just inching toward a nuclear weapon; it’s racing for one. New intelligence suggests Tehran is skipping steps, fast-tracking a crude but functional bomb. If true, Iran could have a working weapon in months, not years (NYT).The urgency isn’t lost on Washington. This intelligence, gathered in the final months of Biden’s presidency, was handed to Trump’s national security team during the transition.
Now, Trump has reinstated his “maximum pressure” campaign, cutting off Iran’s oil exports and tightening sanctions (Reuters).
Meanwhile, Iran isn’t waiting. Reports indicate Tehran is secretly negotiating with Russia to bolster its nuclear and defense programs. High-level talks between Iranian officials and Moscow suggest Iran is preparing for conflict, not backing down (The Times).
Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are meeting today. Official statements are vague, but analysts believe they will be discussing military options. Israel has a history of striking hostile nuclear sites—1981 in Iraq, 2007 in Syria. As Iran approaches the threshold, history suggests Israel won’t hesitate (NY Post).
The question – what is the extent of American support? We do know Israel has upped its intel efforts and have no intention to get caught flat-footed. . . . again.
Iran is not waiting. Especially with their proxies weakened and funds tight. Iran is now responding with military drills, testing air defenses around its nuclear sites. Its economy is crumbling under sanctions, its currency hitting record lows. Meanwhile, European leaders are reconsidering their stance, with whispers of renewed UN sanctions (AP News).
The pieces are moving quickly. The question is no longer if Tehran will act—it’s when.